2016 Tip Sheet: Campaigns and Elections

U.S. SENATE

Republicans

Senator Roy Blunt

Senator Blunt is an amazing tactician who can pound his opponent into the ground. In the 3rd quarter, he raised nearly twice his opponent’s fundraising numbers. Moreover, if Trump fades and the now-reconfirmed socialist U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ momentum grows, it may not matter what else happens. Blunt is doing everything a winning campaign needs to do and is getting helped from how many other vulnerable seats that will be more appealing to national Democrats there are.

Raised in Quarter: $1.2 million

Cash on Hand: $4.4 million

Campaign Manager: Andy Blunt

 

Democrats

Secretary of State Jason Kander

While Kander is unlikely to keep pace with Blunt on fundraising – and he didn’t this quarter, raising barely more than half of Blunt’s haul. However, the money race may be decided by whether the super PACs believe Kander can win. Maybe more to the point: how does his race compare against other potential pick up seats for Democrats? On that front, he is doing absolutely everything he can do to be in that conversation.

Raised in Quarter: $825k

Cash on Hand: $1.6 million

Campaign Manager: Abe Rakov

 

 

GOVERNOR

Republicans

Former Navy Seal Eric Greitens

Greitens has taken the race by storm and has the potential to reshape the entire election. His fundraising has been impressive since entering the race, and it’s becoming clear that he will raise more than any other Republican in the field. However, while he is compiling an impressive list of Missouri donors including Jeff Layman and Sarah & David Steelman, the bulk of his donations are from outside of the state and on the coasts.

With the combination of his resume and his fundraising ability, he could become the one to beat. However, before he is anointed the front runner status, he will have to answer questions about his transition from potential Democratic candidate to conservative outsider.

Raised in Quarter: $1.4 million

Cash on Hand: $2.2 million

Consultant: Victory Enterprises

 

Former House Speaker Catherine Hanaway

Hanaway has perhaps the most geographically diverse support of any candidate, and can thank a loyal team of former legislators who served with her in the House for that. She is the most competitive candidate thus far with Greitens, and has a very strong claim to the electability argument as the only woman in the field matching up against Attorney General Chris Koster. With a tumultuous winter behind her, she can now focus on moving forward.

Raised in Quarter: $166k

Cash on Hand: $1.5 million

Consultant: Axiom Strategies

 

Lt. Governor Peter Kinder

While significantly outraised in this quarter, he is still likely the frontrunner until someone knocks him off that perch. The three-time elected lt. governor will likely need less money to win than the others, and if it remains a five person race, he likely has the strongest support and the lower the number that it takes to win the primary the more likely Kinder wins it.

It should also be noted that he has attacked this campaign with a vigor that many close to him say they haven’t seen in years.

Raised in Quarter: $154k

Cash on Hand: $275k

 

Businessman John Brunner

He was the last to officially announce and did so with a series of web videos highlighting his service to the country. He is the only successful businessman in the race and has a record of military service that Greitens has. One advantage is his run in 2012 cultivated a large core of tea party supporters that are still loyal to him. He is the wild card in the race, as he has the military service and can afford to fund his campaign to match Greitens. How Brunner plays his cards may be the most interesting aspect of the primary.

Raised in Quarter: $276k

Cash on Hand: $256k

Consultant: Barklage & Knodell

 

Senator Bob Dixon

Senator Dixon has one advantage in the race, he is the only candidate from primary vote-rich southwest Missouri. Dixon is running hard right and is carving out a niche both in the state senate and the gubernatorial field as a statesman.

The challenge for him will always be raising the money to compete outside of southwest Missouri, but as a sitting senator and chairman of the judiciary committee, he has the opportunity to become a factor.

Raised in Quarter: $26k

Cash on Hand: $266k

 

Democrats

Attorney General Chris Koster

The story is the same as it has been since January, when the primary field was cleared for Koster. He amasses a war chest while the Republicans fight and spend their resources fighting each other.

The candidate who billed himself as “all prosecutor-no politics” is a former Republican who is the strongest Democrat running in an open seat red state race. Whoever wins the primary is likely to celebrate Labor Day as the underdog. Speaking of a series of ballot measures, including Mayor Slay’s minimum wage effort, the medical marijuana measure, and legislative Republicans stoking labor may help create subtle factors in the turnout model to blunt the Republican tilt to the state.

Raised in Quarter: $1.5 million

Cash on Hand: $5 million

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Source: Missouri Times